FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.42 – 177.4

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 138.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.5 ±9.3

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 8.37Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 120.77Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 108.28Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.9 ±9.8

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 39.6Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 61.92Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 75.88Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3632, 4237, 573

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3632, 4237, 573

Auto

49.1 21%

Teleop

142.0 61%

Endgame

42.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6753, 858, 3536

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6753, 858, 3536

Auto

15.3 9%

Teleop

126.2 72%

Endgame

34.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score237.4pts

Blue projected score177.4pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60
Score range: 120–294
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 314.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.5Season APEX434.9

49.1Auto15.3

142Teleop126.2

42.5Endgame34.3

146Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	41
teleop	41	215
endgame	39	46
foul	0	5
total	90	307

Result

Final score

90 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 138.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.