FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

472.24 – 279.3

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

533 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 76 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 812.3 ±8.7

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 224.77Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 103.83Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 143.64Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.3 ±9.3

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 62.13Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 158.62Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 58.55Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3538, 2619, 1701

/ 100 compat

Projected

472.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3538, 2619, 1701

Auto

97.8 21%

Teleop

263.8 56%

Endgame

111.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5152, 494, 8873

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5152, 494, 8873

Auto

64.1 23%

Teleop

158.8 58%

Endgame

52.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score472.2pts

Blue projected score279.3pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 192.9
Score range: 223–528
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 721 vs event baseline 313.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

812.3Season APEX550.3

97.8Auto64.1

263.8Teleop158.8

111.5Endgame52.8

142Consistency176

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	138	42
teleop	307	92
endgame	88	54
foul	0	0
total	533	188

Result

Final score

533 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 76 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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