FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

492.45 – 255.98

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

567 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 73.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.7 ±8.7

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 103.07Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 255.77Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 133.61Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 477.2 ±9.3

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 27.51Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 121.14Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 107.33Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4327, 5460, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

492.5 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4327, 5460, 9757

Auto

107.4 22%

Teleop

253.3 51%

Endgame

133.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7768, 5216, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

256 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7768, 5216, 5166

Auto

60.0 23%

Teleop

171.6 67%

Endgame

24.7 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.98 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score492.5pts

Blue projected score256pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 236.5
Score range: 199–549
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 751 vs event baseline 314.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.7Season APEX477.2

107.4Auto60

253.3Teleop171.6

133.8Endgame24.7

90Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	118	39
teleop	296	92
endgame	153	53
foul	0	0
total	567	184

Result

Final score

567 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 73.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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