FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

436.31 – 208.77

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 100.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 594.2 ±8.8

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 219.3Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 114.87Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 102.14Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.5 ±9.8

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 114.25Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 31.42Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 63.1Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 503, 6615, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

436.3 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 503, 6615, 4422

Auto

43.9 10%

Teleop

250.6 58%

Endgame

137.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 3604, 3688, 11503

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3604, 3688, 11503

Auto

70.8 34%

Teleop

73.7 36%

Endgame

62.8 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score436.3pts

Blue projected score208.8pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 227.5
Score range: 152–493
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 444 vs event baseline 316.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

594.2Season APEX396.5

43.9Auto70.8

250.6Teleop73.7

137.7Endgame62.8

80Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	31
teleop	154	72
endgame	62	58
foul	0	0
total	283	161

Result

Final score

283 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 100.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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