Qualification · Qualification 41
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
269.95 – 420.43
13%87%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
259 – 551
Prediction correct · off by 70.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 79.07Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 109.02Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 118Event APEX 81.86Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 747.1 ±8.7
Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 192.44Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 91.64Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 136.35Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7197, 3770, 5533
64
/ 100 compatProjected
270 pts
~1.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7197, 3770, 5533
Auto
59.9 23%
Teleop
121.0 46%
Endgame
83.0 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 4%
Blue · 3539, 3707, 3641
83
/ 100 compatProjected
420.4 pts
~2.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3539, 3707, 3641
Auto
89.4 21%
Teleop
224.8 54%
Endgame
103.0 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 4%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.58
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score270pts
Blue projected score420.4pts
Red win probability13%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%
Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 20%
Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 3%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -150.5
- Score range
- 213–477
- Upset likelihood
- 13%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
441.6Season APEX747.1
59.9Auto89.4
121Teleop224.8
83Endgame103
147Consistency120
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 62 | 115 |
| teleop | 108 | 299 |
| endgame | 89 | 137 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 259 | 551 |
Result
Final score
259 – 551
Prediction correct · off by 70.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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