Qualification · Qualification 40
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
292.43 – 317.32
42%58%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
308 – 241
Prediction missed · off by 45.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.6 ±9.3
Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 117.11Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 76.73Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 98.59Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 24.07Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 64.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 228.55Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4237, 2224, 3175
67
/ 100 compatProjected
292.4 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4237, 2224, 3175
Auto
75.9 26%
Teleop
147.7 51%
Endgame
68.8 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 20%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3632, 5534, 1918
64
/ 100 compatProjected
317.3 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3632, 5534, 1918
Auto
31.9 10%
Teleop
171.2 54%
Endgame
111.8 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 20%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.95
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score292.4pts
Blue projected score317.3pts
Red win probability42%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 18%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -24.9
- Score range
- 235–374
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
518.6Season APEX480.6
75.9Auto31.9
147.7Teleop171.2
68.8Endgame111.8
138Consistency132
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 75 | 74 |
| teleop | 181 | 92 |
| endgame | 37 | 75 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 308 | 241 |
Result
Final score
308 – 241
Prediction missed · off by 45.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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