FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

276.63 – 344.81

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

380 – 324

Prediction missed · off by 62.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 527.9 ±8.8

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 66.36Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 184.78Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 25.49Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 547.9 ±9.8

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 188.45Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 65.28Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 91.08Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3536, 503, 7768

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3536, 503, 7768

Auto

45.9 17%

Teleop

154.4 57%

Endgame

71.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1918, 6753, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1918, 6753, 3603

Auto

34.3 10%

Teleop

206.8 61%

Endgame

99.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score276.6pts

Blue projected score344.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.2
Score range: 219–403
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 704 vs event baseline 320.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

527.9Season APEX547.9

45.9Auto34.3

154.4Teleop206.8

71.7Endgame99.7

169Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	55
teleop	271	186
endgame	67	83
foul	15	0
total	380	324

Result

Final score

380 – 324

Prediction missed · off by 62.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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