FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

218.5 – 278

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

202 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 526.2 ±9.3

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 60.31Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 40.07Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 118.12Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.3 ±9.3

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 107.96Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 109.37Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 60.67Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8873, 6753, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8873, 6753, 5216

Auto

32.7 15%

Teleop

161.8 74%

Endgame

23.3 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2619, 3603, 5152

/ 100 compat

Projected

278 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2619, 3603, 5152

Auto

65.0 23%

Teleop

142.0 51%

Endgame

73.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score218.5pts

Blue projected score278pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.5
Score range: 162–335
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 317.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

526.2Season APEX516.3

32.7Auto65

161.8Teleop142

23.3Endgame73

85Consistency205

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	40
teleop	110	162
endgame	61	74
foul	0	0
total	202	276

Result

Final score

202 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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