FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

248.17 – 460.11

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

233 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.7 ±9.8

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 65.91Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 130.68Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 51.58Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 656.7 ±8.7

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 229.66Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 109.81Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 120.64Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 858, 9757, 8179

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 858, 9757, 8179

Auto

47.1 19%

Teleop

142.5 57%

Endgame

58.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3538, 4327, 6615

/ 100 compat

Projected

460.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3538, 4327, 6615

Auto

50.4 11%

Teleop

250.6 55%

Endgame

156.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score248.2pts

Blue projected score460.1pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -211.9
Score range: 191–517
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 639 vs event baseline 316.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.7Season APEX656.7

47.1Auto50.4

142.5Teleop250.6

58.3Endgame156.3

127Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	79
teleop	108	209
endgame	94	118
foul	0	0
total	233	406

Result

Final score

233 – 406

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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