FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

312.5 – 419.05

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

283 – 527

Prediction correct · off by 68.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496 ±9.8

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 149.49Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 84.9Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 78.11Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 707.1 ±9.3

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 234.89Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 84.58Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 99.58Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3641, 1188, 5533

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3641, 1188, 5533

Auto

51.3 17%

Teleop

208.8 68%

Endgame

48.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5460, 4422, 3604

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5460, 4422, 3604

Auto

91.4 22%

Teleop

204.3 49%

Endgame

124.7 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score312.5pts

Blue projected score419.1pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.5
Score range: 256–476
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 810 vs event baseline 314.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496Season APEX707.1

51.3Auto91.4

208.8Teleop204.3

48.4Endgame124.7

67Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	146
teleop	136	227
endgame	46	149
foul	0	5
total	283	527

Result

Final score

283 – 527

Prediction correct · off by 68.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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