FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.27 – 297.07

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

262 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 79.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.3 ±9.8

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 31.94Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 76.5Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 189.83Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.9 ±9.3

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 163.49Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 45.46Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 88.12Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7768, 11503, 3539

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7768, 11503, 3539

Auto

69.1 23%

Teleop

149.2 51%

Endgame

76.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1701, 11386, 3536

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1701, 11386, 3536

Auto

67.2 23%

Teleop

173.1 60%

Endgame

49.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score298.3pts

Blue projected score297.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.2
Score range: 240–355
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 317.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.3Season APEX607.9

69.1Auto67.2

149.2Teleop173.1

76.4Endgame49.4

144Consistency168

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	69
teleop	129	56
endgame	84	49
foul	0	0
total	262	174

Result

Final score

262 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 79.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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