FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

318.88 – 373.65

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

247 – 360

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 497.4 ±9.8

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 70.92Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 160.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 87.9Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.3 ±8.8

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 103.2Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 51.61Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 218.84Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9312, 494, 7197

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9312, 494, 7197

Auto

65.9 21%

Teleop

158.5 51%

Endgame

85.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3770, 6085, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

373.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3770, 6085, 503

Auto

69.4 19%

Teleop

201.9 55%

Endgame

97.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.53 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score318.9pts

Blue projected score373.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.8
Score range: 262–431
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 607 vs event baseline 317.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

497.4Season APEX499.3

65.9Auto69.4

158.5Teleop201.9

85.6Endgame97.6

196Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	80
teleop	140	175
endgame	76	100
foul	5	5
total	247	360

Result

Final score

247 – 360

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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