FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.14 – 257.67

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

167 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.9 ±9.8

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 95.81Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 35.67Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 32.66Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.3 ±8.7

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 60.01Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 94.39Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 103.27Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3707, 3688, 6753

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3707, 3688, 6753

Auto

48.8 30%

Teleop

82.4 51%

Endgame

29.4 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5534, 5166, 573

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5534, 5166, 573

Auto

45.5 17%

Teleop

147.3 56%

Endgame

68.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score164.1pts

Blue projected score257.7pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.5
Score range: 106–316
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 320.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.9Season APEX550.3

48.8Auto45.5

82.4Teleop147.3

29.4Endgame68.6

127Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	50
teleop	78	197
endgame	68	39
foul	0	0
total	167	286

Result

Final score

167 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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