FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

297.47 – 377.29

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 103.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 683.8 ±8.7

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 113.15Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 77.09Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 107.23Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 573 ±9.3

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 116.05Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 117.08Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 144.16Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5216, 3604, 4237

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5216, 3604, 4237

Auto

78.1 25%

Teleop

169.3 55%

Endgame

59.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 1188, 3175, 6615

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1188, 3175, 6615

Auto

44.2 12%

Teleop

199.0 52%

Endgame

136.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.31 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score297.5pts

Blue projected score377.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.8
Score range: 239–435
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 577 vs event baseline 321.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

683.8Season APEX573

78.1Auto44.2

169.3Teleop199

59Endgame136.1

117Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	38
teleop	179	127
endgame	54	60
foul	5	0
total	352	225

Result

Final score

352 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 103.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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