FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

318 – 370.57

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

366 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 94.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 570.6 ±9.3

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 90.91Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 72.16Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 154.93Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.1 ±9.3

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 213.55Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 47.4Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 109.62Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3603, 4422, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

318 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3603, 4422, 3641

Auto

47.0 15%

Teleop

190.9 60%

Endgame

82.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 3539, 3632, 3536

/ 100 compat

Projected

370.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3539, 3632, 3536

Auto

21.5 6%

Teleop

276.7 76%

Endgame

66.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score318pts

Blue projected score370.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.6
Score range: 260–429
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 596 vs event baseline 322.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

570.6Season APEX516.1

47Auto21.5

190.9Teleop276.7

82.9Endgame66.8

136Consistency185

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	88
teleop	223	67
endgame	82	75
foul	15	0
total	366	230

Result

Final score

366 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 94.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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