FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

472.07 – 258.58

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

533 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 725.4 ±9.3

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 121.7Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 215.13Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 135.24Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.5 ±9.8

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 112.36Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 71.48Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 74.74Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9757, 1918, 494

/ 100 compat

Projected

472.1 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9757, 1918, 494

Auto

65.4 14%

Teleop

272.9 57%

Endgame

136.6 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 573, 9312, 5152

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 573, 9312, 5152

Auto

51.9 20%

Teleop

143.1 55%

Endgame

64.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score472.1pts

Blue projected score258.6pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 213.5
Score range: 200–531
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 750 vs event baseline 327.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

725.4Season APEX431.5

65.4Auto51.9

272.9Teleop143.1

136.6Endgame64.5

151Consistency170

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	33
teleop	294	100
endgame	133	84
foul	15	0
total	533	217

Result

Final score

533 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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