FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

268.16 – 310.61

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

348 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 101.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.8 ±9.8

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 63.64Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 111.81Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 92.71Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 519.8 ±9.3

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 53.16Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 86.81Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 170.64Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4422, 3707, 7197

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4422, 3707, 7197

Auto

40.3 15%

Teleop

133.5 51%

Endgame

88.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 6085, 2619, 4237

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6085, 2619, 4237

Auto

75.0 24%

Teleop

172.4 56%

Endgame

61.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score268.2pts

Blue projected score310.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.4
Score range: 210–369
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 320.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.8Season APEX519.8

40.3Auto75

133.5Teleop172.4

88.5Endgame61.1

84Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	75
teleop	180	98
endgame	120	14
foul	0	0
total	348	187

Result

Final score

348 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 101.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.