FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

251.81 – 394.48

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

330 – 309

Prediction missed · off by 81.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 557.3 ±9.3

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 36.38Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 154.35Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 61.08Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525.1 ±9.8

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 88.69Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 60.07Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 245.72Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8179, 1701, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8179, 1701, 5166

Auto

74.2 29%

Teleop

183.8 72%

Endgame

-1.8 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7197, 11386, 3538

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7197, 11386, 3538

Auto

51.3 13%

Teleop

191.8 48%

Endgame

152.7 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score251.8pts

Blue projected score394.5pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.7
Score range: 193–453
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 639 vs event baseline 327.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

557.3Season APEX525.1

74.2Auto51.3

183.8Teleop191.8

-1.8Endgame152.7

161Consistency183

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	63
teleop	171	126
endgame	80	85
foul	0	35
total	330	309

Result

Final score

330 – 309

Prediction missed · off by 81.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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