FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

211.78 – 241.36

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 271

Prediction missed · off by 49.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.7 ±9.3

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 41.52Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 78.66Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 91.6Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.8 ±9.8

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 68.45Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 152.07Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 20.84Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8873, 11503, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8873, 11503, 3707

Auto

48.8 23%

Teleop

98.4 46%

Endgame

68.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 858, 3641, 3688

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 858, 3641, 3688

Auto

66.3 28%

Teleop

115.8 49%

Endgame

55.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score211.8pts

Blue projected score241.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.6
Score range: 154–299
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 552 vs event baseline 323.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.7Season APEX446.8

48.8Auto66.3

98.4Teleop115.8

68.7Endgame55

210Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	60
teleop	135	191
endgame	88	15
foul	15	5
total	281	271

Result

Final score

281 – 271

Prediction missed · off by 49.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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