FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

371.76 – 200.69

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

377 – 414

Prediction missed · off by 109.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 572.1 ±9.8

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 225.27Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 74.45Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 72.04Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 669.2 ±8.7

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 100.7Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 57.8Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 42.19Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1918, 9312, 3604

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1918, 9312, 3604

Auto

44.7 12%

Teleop

184.3 50%

Endgame

142.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 494, 5216, 5534

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 494, 5216, 5534

Auto

52.2 26%

Teleop

89.9 45%

Endgame

58.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.75 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score371.8pts

Blue projected score200.7pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 171.1
Score range: 143–430
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 791 vs event baseline 320.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

572.1Season APEX669.2

44.7Auto52.2

184.3Teleop89.9

142.4Endgame58.9

157Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	128
teleop	192	245
endgame	131	41
foul	0	0
total	377	414

Result

Final score

377 – 414

Prediction missed · off by 109.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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