FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

207.92 – 278.79

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

507 – 321

Prediction missed · off by 170.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 665.2 ±9.3

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 99.57Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX -33.53Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 141.88Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.2 ±9.8

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 97.83Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 74.96Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 106Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1701, 6753, 3539

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1701, 6753, 3539

Auto

87.9 43%

Teleop

106.5 52%

Endgame

8.6 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9757, 4422, 1188

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9757, 4422, 1188

Auto

15.9 6%

Teleop

209.1 76%

Endgame

49.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.53 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score207.9pts

Blue projected score278.8pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.9
Score range: 151–336
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 828 vs event baseline 316.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

665.2Season APEX462.2

87.9Auto15.9

106.5Teleop209.1

8.6Endgame49.3

232Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	51
teleop	364	172
endgame	75	98
foul	0	0
total	507	321

Result

Final score

507 – 321

Prediction missed · off by 170.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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