FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

421.96 – 131.42

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 121.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.4 ±9.3

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 169.38Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 148Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 104.58Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.2 ±10.4

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 67.59Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 63.82Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 0.01Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3536, 7197, 4327

/ 100 compat

Projected

422 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3536, 7197, 4327

Auto

47.6 11%

Teleop

261.7 63%

Endgame

106.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5152, 5533, 7768

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5152, 5533, 7768

Auto

67.1 52%

Teleop

39.3 30%

Endgame

23.1 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.8 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score422pts

Blue projected score131.4pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 290.5
Score range: 73–480
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 497 vs event baseline 319.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.4Season APEX317.2

47.6Auto67.1

261.7Teleop39.3

106.4Endgame23.1

211Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	46
teleop	146	122
endgame	91	57
foul	0	0
total	272	225

Result

Final score

272 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 121.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.