FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

273.14 – 340.49

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

406 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 92.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.2 ±8.8

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 87.2Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 48.46Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 137.48Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543.5 ±9.3

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 172.8Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 62.11Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 105.58Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11386, 2619, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11386, 2619, 503

Auto

35.7 13%

Teleop

164.0 61%

Endgame

68.4 26%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 573, 8179, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 573, 8179, 3707

Auto

89.8 26%

Teleop

189.7 55%

Endgame

63.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.53 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score273.1pts

Blue projected score340.5pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.4
Score range: 216–397
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 694 vs event baseline 314.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.2Season APEX543.5

35.7Auto89.8

164Teleop189.7

68.4Endgame63.8

238Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	36
teleop	234	148
endgame	116	104
foul	0	0
total	406	288

Result

Final score

406 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 92.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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