FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.74 – 272.86

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

280 – 339

Prediction missed · off by 63.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463.1 ±9.3

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 128.24Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 140.93Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 72.57Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 519.3 ±9.8

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 36.29Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 71.65Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 164.92Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3603, 3175, 3632

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3603, 3175, 3632

Auto

51.9 15%

Teleop

207.0 61%

Endgame

80.1 24%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3688, 6085, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3688, 6085, 5460

Auto

87.7 32%

Teleop

173.5 64%

Endgame

10.3 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score341.7pts

Blue projected score272.9pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.9
Score range: 216–399
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 619 vs event baseline 314.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463.1Season APEX519.3

51.9Auto87.7

207Teleop173.5

80.1Endgame10.3

238Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	123
teleop	110	125
endgame	126	91
foul	0	0
total	280	339

Result

Final score

280 – 339

Prediction missed · off by 63.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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