FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

271.22 – 247.45

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

372 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 697.6 ±8.7

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 35.13Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 69.8Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 166.29Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 529.4 ±9.3

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 19.71Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 97.21Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 130.53Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3604, 494, 3536

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3604, 494, 3536

Auto

59.6 22%

Teleop

123.8 47%

Endgame

81.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 8873, 9757, 7197

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8873, 9757, 7197

Auto

65.4 26%

Teleop

137.9 56%

Endgame

44.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score271.2pts

Blue projected score247.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.8
Score range: 190–328
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 632 vs event baseline 314.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

697.6Season APEX529.4

59.6Auto65.4

123.8Teleop137.9

81.8Endgame44.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	27
teleop	233	128
endgame	84	105
foul	0	0
total	372	260

Result

Final score

372 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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