FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

253.52 – 343.13

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

262 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 4.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.7 ±9.8

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 55.6Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 71.52Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 126.4Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 618.9 ±9.3

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 116.22Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 165.04Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 61.87Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5533, 9312, 4327

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5533, 9312, 4327

Auto

46.2 18%

Teleop

126.3 50%

Endgame

79.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6615, 1701, 3688

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6615, 1701, 3688

Auto

83.1 24%

Teleop

169.3 49%

Endgame

90.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score253.5pts

Blue projected score343.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.6
Score range: 196–401
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 605 vs event baseline 320.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.7Season APEX618.9

46.2Auto83.1

126.3Teleop169.3

79.5Endgame90.8

133Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	102
teleop	134	185
endgame	82	56
foul	0	0
total	262	343

Result

Final score

262 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 4.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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