FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.24 – 158.81

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

194 – 382

Prediction missed · off by 125 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.5 ±10.4

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 56Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 47.77Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11386Climax-Scotts PantherBots

Season APEX 92Event APEX 63.47Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 650.9 ±8.1

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 83.22Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 48.6Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 26.99Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7768, 858, 11386

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7768, 858, 11386

Auto

30.1 20%

Teleop

68.5 45%

Endgame

54.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 503, 3707, 5534

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 503, 3707, 5534

Auto

28.9 18%

Teleop

51.7 33%

Endgame

75.8 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score167.2pts

Blue projected score158.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.4
Score range: 101–225
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 576 vs event baseline 319.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.5Season APEX650.9

30.1Auto28.9

68.5Teleop51.7

54.1Endgame75.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	66
teleop	98	197
endgame	53	119
foul	0	0
total	194	382

Result

Final score

194 – 382

Prediction missed · off by 125 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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