FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.73 – 217.85

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

339 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 533.7 ±9.8

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 50.04Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 46.88Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 134.81Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.3 ±9.8

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 79.84Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 53.39Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 84.62Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3632, 5152, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3632, 5152, 5460

Auto

74.7 32%

Teleop

105.2 45%

Endgame

51.8 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 4422, 2224, 4327

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4422, 2224, 4327

Auto

-4.1 0%

Teleop

118.4 56%

Endgame

97.6 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score231.7pts

Blue projected score217.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.9
Score range: 160–290
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 589 vs event baseline 321.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

533.7Season APEX323.3

74.7Auto-4.1

105.2Teleop118.4

51.8Endgame97.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	40
teleop	212	148
endgame	59	62
foul	0	0
total	339	250

Result

Final score

339 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 69.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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