FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

238.59 – 433.71

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

341 – 581

Prediction correct · off by 124.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.9 ±9.3

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 3.32Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 124.49Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 110.78Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 776.4 ±9.3

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 218.1Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1918Newaygo County GEARS

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 173.89Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 41.72Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3688, 3539, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3688, 3539, 3603

Auto

86.3 36%

Teleop

112.1 47%

Endgame

42.2 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3538, 1918, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3538, 1918, 5216

Auto

69.5 16%

Teleop

259.9 60%

Endgame

106.6 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score238.6pts

Blue projected score433.7pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -195.1
Score range: 183–490
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 922 vs event baseline 311.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508.9Season APEX776.4

86.3Auto69.5

112.1Teleop259.9

42.2Endgame106.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	45
teleop	197	330
endgame	63	206
foul	0	0
total	341	581

Result

Final score

341 – 581

Prediction correct · off by 124.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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