FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

205.34 – 269.75

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

284 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 67.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.8 ±9.3

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 42.09Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 128.95Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 34.3Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.8 ±9.8

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 90.96Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4237Team Lance-A-Bot

Season APEX 225.3Event APEX 94.99Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 83.8Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8179, 3175, 2619

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8179, 3175, 2619

Auto

63.5 30%

Teleop

115.9 56%

Endgame

28.8 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11503, 4237, 9312

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11503, 4237, 9312

Auto

47.5 18%

Teleop

139.0 52%

Endgame

83.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score205.3pts

Blue projected score269.8pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.4
Score range: 149–326
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 610 vs event baseline 312.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.8Season APEX414.8

63.5Auto47.5

115.9Teleop139

28.8Endgame83.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	62
teleop	143	205
endgame	82	59
foul	0	0
total	284	326

Result

Final score

284 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 67.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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