FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

309.43 – 458.99

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

257 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.1 ±9.8

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 81.5Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 85.55Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 142.38Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.3 ±8.8

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 223.52Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 121.33Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 114.14Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5166, 6085, 1188

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5166, 6085, 1188

Auto

62.3 20%

Teleop

185.9 60%

Endgame

61.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 573, 5533, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

459 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 573, 5533, 503

Auto

21.0 5%

Teleop

318.3 70%

Endgame

113.3 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score309.4pts

Blue projected score459pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -149.6
Score range: 253–515
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 594 vs event baseline 313.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.1Season APEX562.3

62.3Auto21

185.9Teleop318.3

61.4Endgame113.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	74
teleop	195	202
endgame	8	61
foul	5	0
total	257	337

Result

Final score

257 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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