FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

362.85 – 321.95

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

229 – 267

Prediction missed · off by 94.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 676.2 ±9.3

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 167.57Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7768The AutoMatons

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 95.16Rank 33Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 100.12Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 606.8 ±9.3

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 167.57Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 80.57Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5152Alotobots

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 73.81Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5460, 7768, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5460, 7768, 3707

Auto

25.0 7%

Teleop

239.1 67%

Endgame

93.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3641, 3604, 5152

/ 100 compat

Projected

322 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3641, 3604, 5152

Auto

52.6 16%

Teleop

199.4 62%

Endgame

69.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score362.9pts

Blue projected score322pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.9
Score range: 265–420
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 318.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

676.2Season APEX606.8

25Auto52.6

239.1Teleop199.4

93.9Endgame69.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	87
teleop	61	77
endgame	64	103
foul	0	0
total	229	267

Result

Final score

229 – 267

Prediction missed · off by 94.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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