FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.44 – 160.35

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 276

Prediction missed · off by 106.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387 ±9.8

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 39.18Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 88.46Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 92.8Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 572.6 ±8.7

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 13.39Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 108.57Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 38.39Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3688, 4422, 5534

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3688, 4422, 5534

Auto

33.1 15%

Teleop

116.9 53%

Endgame

71.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8873, 3536, 3770

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8873, 3536, 3770

Auto

-3.9 0%

Teleop

115.1 74%

Endgame

43.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score220.4pts

Blue projected score160.4pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.1
Score range: 101–279
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 329.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387Season APEX572.6

33.1Auto-3.9

116.9Teleop115.1

71Endgame43.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	61
teleop	60	168
endgame	44	47
foul	0	0
total	123	276

Result

Final score

123 – 276

Prediction missed · off by 106.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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