FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.32 – 263.34

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

187 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.4 ±9.8

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 28.75Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 59.14Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 25.43Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 481.2 ±9.8

858Demons Robotics

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 59.14Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 104.77Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 99.43Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5216, 3632, 8179

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5216, 3632, 8179

Auto

23.2 21%

Teleop

76.3 68%

Endgame

12.6 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 858, 3539, 7197

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 858, 3539, 7197

Auto

25.5 10%

Teleop

138.8 53%

Endgame

96.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score113.3pts

Blue projected score263.3pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150
Score range: 53–323
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 541 vs event baseline 335.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.4Season APEX481.2

23.2Auto25.5

76.3Teleop138.8

12.6Endgame96

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	93
teleop	112	177
endgame	8	79
foul	0	5
total	187	354

Result

Final score

187 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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