Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
209.67 – 123.93
74%26%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
476 – 168
Prediction correct · off by 155.2 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 595.1 ±9.3
Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 70Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 122.91Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 16.76Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.4 ±10.4
Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 34.57Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 92Event APEX 70Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 19.36Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9757, 3538, 6085
54
/ 100 compatProjected
209.7 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9757, 3538, 6085
Auto
58.3 28%
Teleop
112.9 54%
Endgame
37.1 18%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 23%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2224, 11386, 6753
39
/ 100 compatProjected
123.9 pts
~1.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2224, 11386, 6753
Auto
38.3 31%
Teleop
72.6 59%
Endgame
11.6 9%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 23%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.33 · Blue 1.29
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score209.7pts
Blue projected score123.9pts
Red win probability74%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 22%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 85.7
- Score range
- 63–271
- Upset likelihood
- 26%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
595.1Season APEX281.4
58.3Auto38.3
112.9Teleop72.6
37.1Endgame11.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 97 | 25 |
| teleop | 257 | 64 |
| endgame | 122 | 64 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 476 | 168 |
Result
Final score
476 – 168
Prediction correct · off by 155.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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