FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

383.49 – 309.06

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

457 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635.3 ±9.3

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 93.29Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 183.19Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1188The Ravens

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 107.01Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571 ±9.3

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 147.66Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 43.26Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 118.14Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3604, 3538, 1188

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3604, 3538, 1188

Auto

68.3 18%

Teleop

212.9 56%

Endgame

101.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 494, 11503, 3175

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 494, 11503, 3175

Auto

69.7 23%

Teleop

161.4 53%

Endgame

72.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score383.5pts

Blue projected score309.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.4
Score range: 251–441
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 774 vs event baseline 320.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635.3Season APEX571

68.3Auto69.7

212.9Teleop161.4

101.9Endgame72.8

93Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	79
teleop	243	152
endgame	138	86
foul	0	0
total	457	317

Result

Final score

457 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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