FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Foundation Division

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

560.57 – 431.48

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 190.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 789.2 ±9.3

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 104.69Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 193.82Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 262.06Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 798.2 ±8.7

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 96.86Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 172.32Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 162.3Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7197, 3538, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

560.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7197, 3538, 5460

Auto

129.8 23%

Teleop

306.6 55%

Endgame

117.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 5216, 1701, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5216, 1701, 3641

Auto

106.9 25%

Teleop

223.9 53%

Endgame

89.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.59 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score560.6pts

Blue projected score431.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.1
Score range: 373–619
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 611 vs event baseline 320.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

789.2Season APEX798.2

129.8Auto106.9

306.6Teleop223.9

117.6Endgame89.3

46Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	125
teleop	210	92
endgame	103	35
foul	5	0
total	359	252

Result

Final score

359 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 190.5 pts

Match videos

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