Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
439.18 – 456.46
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
408 – 402
Prediction missed · off by 42.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 638.1 ±9.3
Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 103.53Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 163.43Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 172.22Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 684.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 155.08Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 130.35Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 171.03Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 123, 2851, 4391
82
/ 100 compatProjected
439.2 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 123, 2851, 4391
Auto
93.0 21%
Teleop
231.8 53%
Endgame
109.9 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 36%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 6152, 1481, 33
82
/ 100 compatProjected
456.5 pts
~2.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6152, 1481, 33
Auto
84.0 18%
Teleop
254.0 56%
Endgame
117.4 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 36%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 2.35
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score439.2pts
Blue projected score456.5pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 70%, blue 76%
Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 46%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -17.3
- Score range
- 375–520
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
638.1Season APEX684.9
93Auto84
231.8Teleop254
109.9Endgame117.4
178Consistency166
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 87 | 77 |
| teleop | 214 | 193 |
| endgame | 92 | 127 |
| foul | 15 | 5 |
| total | 408 | 402 |
Result
Final score
408 – 402
Prediction missed · off by 42.8 pts
Match videos
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