Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
442.31 – 475.07
40%60%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
397 – 442
Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 701.4 ±8.7
Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 185.41Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 108.93Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 147.97Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 123.46Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 201.98Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 257Event APEX 149.63Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7166, 8280, 2337
81
/ 100 compatProjected
442.3 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7166, 8280, 2337
Auto
92.1 21%
Teleop
215.5 50%
Endgame
126.4 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5675, 2137, 2960
83
/ 100 compatProjected
475.1 pts
~2.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5675, 2137, 2960
Auto
99.0 21%
Teleop
269.2 57%
Endgame
105.4 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.78 · Blue 2.39
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score442.3pts
Blue projected score475.1pts
Red win probability40%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 68%
Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 49%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -32.8
- Score range
- 379–538
- Upset likelihood
- 40%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
701.4Season APEX681.2
92.1Auto99
215.5Teleop269.2
126.4Endgame105.4
159Consistency146
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 75 | 113 |
| teleop | 197 | 260 |
| endgame | 125 | 69 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 397 | 442 |
Result
Final score
397 – 442
Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts
Match videos
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