Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
434.3 – 407.9
58%42%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
464 – 485
Prediction missed · off by 53.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 638.1 ±9.3
Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 101.91Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 161.98Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 170.41Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621.5 ±8.7
Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 89.54Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 145.26Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 173.1Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 123, 2851, 4391
82
/ 100 compatProjected
434.3 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 123, 2851, 4391
Auto
91.4 21%
Teleop
225.8 52%
Endgame
114.9 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 36%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 4967, 548, 5066
76
/ 100 compatProjected
407.9 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4967, 548, 5066
Auto
67.8 17%
Teleop
236.0 58%
Endgame
104.7 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 70%
Supercharged: 36%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.87
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score434.3pts
Blue projected score407.9pts
Red win probability58%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 70%, blue 66%
Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 35%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 26.4
- Score range
- 345–497
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 949 vs event baseline 351.1.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
638.1Season APEX621.5
91.4Auto67.8
225.8Teleop236
114.9Endgame104.7
178Consistency168
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 101 | 67 |
| teleop | 259 | 244 |
| endgame | 89 | 174 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 464 | 485 |
Result
Final score
464 – 485
Prediction missed · off by 53.4 pts
Match videos
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