FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

439.27 – 332.91

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

540 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 93.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 684.9 ±9.3

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 150.12Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 124.06Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 165.09Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 599.3 ±9.3

5843Flurb

Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 95.05Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 158.46Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 79.4Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6152, 1481, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

439.3 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6152, 1481, 33

Auto

80.8 18%

Teleop

244.8 56%

Endgame

112.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5843, 8373, 910

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5843, 8373, 910

Auto

52.2 16%

Teleop

176.1 54%

Endgame

99.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 46%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.83 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score439.3pts

Blue projected score332.9pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.4
Score range: 270–502
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 786 vs event baseline 350.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

684.9Season APEX599.3

80.8Auto52.2

244.8Teleop176.1

112.4Endgame99

181Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	51
teleop	298	130
endgame	143	60
foul	0	5
total	540	246

Result

Final score

540 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 93.8 pts

Match videos

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