FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

385.01 – 442.31

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

273 – 347

Prediction correct · off by 103.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 645.2 ±8.7

818The Steel Armadillos

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 95.55Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 146.49Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 142.97Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 724.8 ±8.7

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 131.89Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 151.2Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 159.22Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 818, 70, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

385 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 818, 70, 68

Auto

87.9 23%

Teleop

209.2 55%

Endgame

86.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8612, 5712, 5086

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8612, 5712, 5086

Auto

74.6 17%

Teleop

248.7 56%

Endgame

120.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score385pts

Blue projected score442.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 50%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.3
Score range: 322–505
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 620 vs event baseline 351.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

645.2Season APEX724.8

87.9Auto74.6

209.2Teleop248.7

86.3Endgame120.2

164Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	71
teleop	115	185
endgame	82	91
foul	0	0
total	273	347

Result

Final score

273 – 347

Prediction correct · off by 103.7 pts

Match videos

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