Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
467.79 – 352.9
81%19%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
497 – 240
Prediction correct · off by 71.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 681.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 122.3Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 199.62Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 257Event APEX 145.87Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 599.3 ±9.3
Season APEX 144.7Event APEX 101.45Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 165.13Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 86.32Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5675, 2137, 2960
83
/ 100 compatProjected
467.8 pts
~2.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5675, 2137, 2960
Auto
92.2 20%
Teleop
259.8 56%
Endgame
114.7 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 49%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5843, 8373, 910
68
/ 100 compatProjected
352.9 pts
~1.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5843, 8373, 910
Auto
58.0 17%
Teleop
188.0 54%
Endgame
103.6 30%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 49%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.8 · Blue 1.51
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score467.8pts
Blue projected score352.9pts
Red win probability81%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 68%, blue 69%
Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 41%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 114.9
- Score range
- 290–531
- Upset likelihood
- 19%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
681.2Season APEX599.3
92.2Auto58
259.8Teleop188
114.7Endgame103.6
147Consistency148
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 125 | 30 |
| teleop | 303 | 120 |
| endgame | 64 | 75 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 497 | 240 |
Result
Final score
497 – 240
Prediction correct · off by 71.1 pts
Match videos
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