FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

447.5 – 445.95

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

405 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 701.4 ±8.7

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 187.24Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 110.97Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 149.29Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 684.9 ±9.3

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 152.43Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1481The Riveters

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 125.35Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 168.17Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7166, 8280, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

447.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7166, 8280, 2337

Auto

93.5 21%

Teleop

232.4 53%

Endgame

116.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6152, 1481, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6152, 1481, 33

Auto

72.7 16%

Teleop

253.0 57%

Endgame

118.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.99 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score447.5pts

Blue projected score445.9pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.6
Score range: 383–511
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 808 vs event baseline 350.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

701.4Season APEX684.9

93.5Auto72.7

232.4Teleop253

116.1Endgame118.4

155Consistency176

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	110
teleop	143	204
endgame	153	89
foul	20	0
total	405	403

Result

Final score

405 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 pts

Match videos

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