Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
461.35 – 388.83
71%29%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
359 – 462
Prediction missed · off by 87.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 724.8 ±8.7
Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 138.3Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 157.41Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 165.64Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621.5 ±8.7
Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 82.49Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 140.43Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 165.91Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8612, 5712, 5086
82
/ 100 compatProjected
461.4 pts
~2.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8612, 5712, 5086
Auto
78.5 17%
Teleop
266.3 58%
Endgame
117.6 25%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 75%
Supercharged: 50%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4967, 548, 5066
74
/ 100 compatProjected
388.8 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4967, 548, 5066
Auto
69.1 18%
Teleop
220.2 57%
Endgame
100.1 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 75%
Supercharged: 50%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.69 · Blue 1.61
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score461.4pts
Blue projected score388.8pts
Red win probability71%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 75%, blue 66%
Supercharged bonusred 50%, blue 35%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 72.5
- Score range
- 326–524
- Upset likelihood
- 29%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
724.8Season APEX621.5
78.5Auto69.1
266.3Teleop220.2
117.6Endgame100.1
164Consistency172
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 60 | 64 |
| teleop | 171 | 277 |
| endgame | 128 | 121 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 359 | 462 |
Result
Final score
359 – 462
Prediction missed · off by 87.8 pts
Match videos
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