Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
467.67 – 435.56
60%40%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
435 – 464
Prediction missed · off by 30.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 681.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 119.8Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 198.73Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 257Event APEX 149.14Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 701.4 ±8.7
Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 183.58Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 105.05Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 146.93Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5675, 2137, 2960
83
/ 100 compatProjected
467.7 pts
~2.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5675, 2137, 2960
Auto
104.5 22%
Teleop
256.0 55%
Endgame
106.1 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 49%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7166, 8280, 2337
80
/ 100 compatProjected
435.6 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7166, 8280, 2337
Auto
88.5 21%
Teleop
220.6 51%
Endgame
121.5 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 49%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.78
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score467.7pts
Blue projected score435.6pts
Red win probability60%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 68%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 49%, blue 37%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 32.1
- Score range
- 372–532
- Upset likelihood
- 40%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
681.2Season APEX701.4
104.5Auto88.5
256Teleop220.6
106.1Endgame121.5
156Consistency159
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 67 | 85 |
| teleop | 257 | 290 |
| endgame | 111 | 84 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 435 | 464 |
Result
Final score
435 – 464
Prediction missed · off by 30.6 pts
Match videos
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