FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

423.53 – 414.07

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

518 – 452

Prediction correct · off by 66.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 701.4 ±8.7

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 179.71Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8280K9.0 Robotics

Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 100.78Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2337EngiNERDs

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 143.04Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 650.5 ±9.3

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 81.07Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 162.2Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 170.8Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7166, 8280, 2337

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7166, 8280, 2337

Auto

83.4 20%

Teleop

212.0 51%

Endgame

122.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4810, 2851, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

414.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4810, 2851, 4391

Auto

77.2 19%

Teleop

225.9 55%

Endgame

105.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.03 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score423.5pts

Blue projected score414.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 46%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.5
Score range: 350–488
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 970 vs event baseline 354.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

701.4Season APEX650.5

83.4Auto77.2

212Teleop225.9

122.4Endgame105.8

166Consistency180

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	95
teleop	278	234
endgame	117	118
foul	0	5
total	518	452

Result

Final score

518 – 452

Prediction correct · off by 66.2 pts

Match videos

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