Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
424.06 – 472.15
35%65%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
486 – 451
Prediction missed · off by 41.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 621.5 ±8.7
Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 94.92Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 148.95Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 180.19Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 154.4Event APEX 121.44Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 200.08Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 257Event APEX 150.63Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4967, 548, 5066
77
/ 100 compatProjected
424.1 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4967, 548, 5066
Auto
67.9 16%
Teleop
239.0 56%
Endgame
117.8 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 35%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5675, 2137, 2960
82
/ 100 compatProjected
472.2 pts
~2.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5675, 2137, 2960
Auto
102.1 22%
Teleop
268.7 57%
Endgame
100.0 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 35%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 2.47
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score424.1pts
Blue projected score472.2pts
Red win probability35%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 66%, blue 68%
Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 49%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -48.1
- Score range
- 360–536
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
621.5Season APEX681.2
67.9Auto102.1
239Teleop268.7
117.8Endgame100
162Consistency151
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 90 | 123 |
| teleop | 248 | 185 |
| endgame | 138 | 143 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 486 | 451 |
Result
Final score
486 – 451
Prediction missed · off by 41.5 pts
Match videos
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