Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
435.12 – 425.84
53%47%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
353 – 225
Prediction correct · off by 141.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 701.4 ±8.7
Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 183.33Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 105.98Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 145.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 724.8 ±8.7
Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 126.12Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 146.75Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 152.97Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7166, 8280, 2337
80
/ 100 compatProjected
435.1 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7166, 8280, 2337
Auto
88.9 21%
Teleop
212.7 50%
Endgame
126.7 30%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8612, 5712, 5086
78
/ 100 compatProjected
425.8 pts
~2.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8612, 5712, 5086
Auto
73.8 17%
Teleop
238.2 56%
Endgame
114.8 27%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 37%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.03 · Blue 2.21
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score435.1pts
Blue projected score425.8pts
Red win probability53%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 75%
Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 50%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 9.3
- Score range
- 362–499
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
701.4Season APEX724.8
88.9Auto73.8
212.7Teleop238.2
126.7Endgame114.8
163Consistency174
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 55 | 67 |
| teleop | 198 | 102 |
| endgame | 100 | 56 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 353 | 225 |
Result
Final score
353 – 225
Prediction correct · off by 141.5 pts
Match videos
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