FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

302.58 – 290.01

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

406 – 423

Prediction missed · off by 118.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 546 ±9.8

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 92.29Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 108.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 102Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 597.9 ±9.3

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 108.29Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 92.29Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 89.43Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 123, 7056, 6152

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 123, 7056, 6152

Auto

39.1 13%

Teleop

165.1 55%

Endgame

95.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5086, 1711, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

290 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5086, 1711, 33

Auto

38.9 14%

Teleop

155.1 54%

Endgame

93.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.22 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score302.6pts

Blue projected score290pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.6
Score range: 231–362
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 829 vs event baseline 326.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

546Season APEX597.9

39.1Auto38.9

165.1Teleop155.1

95.4Endgame93.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	59
teleop	202	220
endgame	110	144
foul	0	0
total	406	423

Result

Final score

406 – 423

Prediction missed · off by 118.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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